Small Changes, Large Changes

The Post reports that President Obama's poll numbers are slipping:

". . . public approval of President Obama's stewardship on the issue has dropped below the 50 percent threshold for the first time . . . . Obama's approval ratings on other front-burner issues, such as the economy and the federal budget deficit, have also slipped over the summer, as rising concern about spending and continuing worries about the economy combine to challenge his administration."

I'm not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, every President's polls slip after their inaugural highs. The difficulties of realizing policy goals begins to peel off the previously hopeful as they are disappointed with various policy details.

On the other hand, Obama's strength was based on his identity as a new and different figure, with a different approach. He's losing support among exactly those who should be part of a new coalition, and rapidly: "Among independents and Republicans, confidence [in the stimulus plan] has decreased by 20 or more points; it has dropped seven points among Democrats." The article doesn't give the initial number, but that's a whopping drop from any level. "Nearly a quarter of moderate and conservative Democrats (22 percent) now see Obama as an 'old-style tax-and-spend Democrat,' up from 4 percent in March." Such Democrats are unique in their sympathy for a Democratic presidency and their interest in middle-of-the-road economic policy. In March, they were sure Obama wasn't a traditional liberal. Suddenly, a significant number of them have changed their mind, which suggests that the "change" message is under serious pressure.

These moves suggest that the core themes of Obama's image are eroding. It would be harder for Obama to claim that he's "bipartisan" if the independents and conservative Dems think he's a traditional liberal. And he has deliberately sold that unique character, so his credibility is bound up in people's agreement with that self-assessment.

The legislative implications are clear. If Obama's centrist image collapses, Democrats from swing districts and states will be a lot less willing to co-operate, as they'll doubt his ability to continually make the sale to their constituencies. He'll then have to choose between moving further left to keep the liberals on board, which would accelerate the erosion. Or he'll have to move his policy proposals to the right, to shore up his image and coalition. That would not play well with Congressional liberals, who have so far largely had their way and have expansive hopes for this Administration. They might co-operate out of self-interest, but there would be considerable tensions within the party. Obama would then have to organize cohesive and saleable policies from those tensions, requiring considerably more legislative involvement than he's had so far. His ability to reach out could also be compromised by a new impression in Congress that he really is a liberal, and any concessions he makes are only momentary and incidental.

These difficulties passing legislation would only make it more difficult to address the country's immediate problems, whose resolution are the chief driver of general impressions.

This doesn't have to be fatal. Obama might be able to weave harmony among the party's factions. Though I haven't yet been impressed with his political or philosophical acumen, I'm in the minority, and deft leadership through crisis is certainly what we've been told to expect of the man. That would be impressive in its own right. If he can pass a health care bill that satisfies his party conservatives, and starts to see improvement in the economy, the moment could validate the skill and poise. It might establish the bona fides of his centrism, and cast quibblers like myself as reactionaries.

But those are big ifs, and contrary to my understanding of his real goals. I think the man is a true liberal, and that the polls reflect a growing realization of that. If so, time is running out on this Administration. Once they've lost that centrist label, they can't get it back -- every effort to do so would seem more calculated than anything else, and he'd lack the credibility to make the case. The President would be left with the liberal wing of his own party, and considerable disappointment and confusion over his inability to push things forward. At that point, the national discussion could get ugly.