Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Freeze Frame

Matthew Yglesias has an important detail about the impending "freeze" proposal:
a senior administration official outlined the Obama administration’s plan . . . . [T]he plan calls for the FY 2011 budget to be higher than the FY 2010 budget, but then for non-security discretionary spending to be held constant in FY 2012 and FY 2013.

The freeze is a tentative beginning, limited by its application to a small and structurally less important section of the budget, and one that won't begin before the mid-terms. The Administration had already implied deficit reduction would begin in 2012, so I don't see much new policy here.

The effect could be perverse: it isn't hard to imagine Congress _increasing_ 2011 spending in the areas frozen, effectively pushing the 2012 increases into 2011.

Perhaps the Administration is framing the deficit question: we said we'd address the deficit after the economy improved, and here is how we'll do that. That forces GOP candidates to talk about credibility, when the party doesn't have much of its own. And to outdo incumbents, challengers might have to offer specific reductions, which could irritate voters.

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