Is That All You've Got?

Campaign Obama is fully focused on Candidate Palin and the "change" message. Yesterday Candidate Obama was claiming her opposition to the Bridge to Nowhere was false; over the weekend his reply to the idea of John McCain, Change Agent was "give me a break". He also backed off the tax increase portion of his program, at least while we're in recession, which probably takes any argument about fiscal responsibility off the table for the time being.

It's noticeable that Campaign Obama isn't pushing "programs" or policies, which doesn't suggest great confidence in their appeal. Campaign McCain has announced its preference for a debate on personalities and biographies, and that's what they're getting, because the other side has decided to double down on the Palin nomination.

If Obama can expose falsehood in her record, her appeal deflates -- reformers need candor. So far this effort doesn't seem promising. Her record on the Bridge to Nowhere is less straightforward than advertised, but it still seems strong. (This morning I heard an NPR anchor caveat her opposition as arriving only after the project was "untenable", but this seems more opinionated than persuasive.) On the evangelical grab-bag, her positions are not unexpected and not really an emphasis for her governance. This line of attack seems more wishful thinking than anything else. If the best Obama can do is argue the nuances of McCain's running mate's record, he's neither making his own case nor addressing McCain's.

Obama is also drawing attention to Palin and her ongoing performance. She does have to get into interviews and press conferences (though Obama doesn't do many of the latter himself). Obama is highlighting any potential stumble. But if she performs solidly and avoids obvious gaffes, people may be underwhelmed, but they aren't going to disqualify McCain. If she performs great, Obama has just made McCain's case for him.

Obama is taking the other side of the Palin gamble -- increasing his gains from her stumbles and his losses from her triumphs. It doesn't signal confidence in his own message. It also frames the issue in terms Campaign McCain can control: with preparation and thoughtful rollout, they can give her every chance to succeed. And by setting up Palin as an acid test of McCain's judgment, he has actually lowered the bar somewhat. Previously the question was, how will she do? And an underwhelming performance might have sowed doubt. Now the question is becoming, is she so bad that her nomination is an obvious and serious mistake? And if she performs with the expected norms of national politicians, the answer will be no.

Obama is also hoping that a sympathetic press will shape perceptions of her in his favor. The press is certainly trying. But each refutation of some breathless allegation reduces their credibility and casts them as players with agendas of their own. At some point they may find that even a reasonable charge is ignored because they've cried wolf so often. At some point the public may turn them off entirely, which would shut down an important communications ally for the Obama message. Or, if the attacks don't start to stick, the press may pick up a "she was underestimated" theme.

Obama's response so far doesn't reveal confidence in his own program. It doesn't suggest any essential critique of John McCain. (Where are the "out of touch" and "Bush-Cheney III" themes?) The reliance on the press risks transparent cynicism, and diminution of a key ally. The whole approach suggest any strategic judgment beyond a gamble that someone else will fail. And it raises questions about Obama's communication skills -- if he can't shape the message now, then was he shaping the message all year? or did this "change" thing just fall in his lap?

The challenge for McCain now is, don't let it be about Palin. Keep making your case, get yourself out there, draw the focus to your message and story. Keep rolling her out, but let that story sell itself. She has changed the game and confused your opponent, but don't make her the endgame. Obama is signaling your message is more appealing than his -- press that. Eventually the focus must return to the top of the ticket, and now is your opportunity to shape the terms used at that point.