Will It Pass?

It isn't clear to me that this thing will pass. Congressman Van Hollen (D-MD) was just on CNBC, saying that as of 10:30 last night as many as 120 Democrats were voting against the bill. That would be a majority of the Democratic caucus (there are 235, plus Sanders), and (if the Dems get Sanders) would require 102 Republicans (out of 199). Congressman Van Hollen wouldn't say that Democratic challengers would refrain from criticizing GOP members voting "yes". John Harwood reported that Speaker Pelosi had set a goal of 100 Republicans, and that they might not get there.

This is already a bad bill. There is a lot more for Democrats to like here than Republicans, what with the various provisos singling out various of their constituencies for special consideration, and the project's overall ratification of interventionist government. House Republicans have been complaining about the bill all along, and it doesn't reflect much important movement toward them (the insurance provision isn't much, and Secretary Paulson is signalling that he'll ignore it).

So if a majority of Democrats can't vote for this thing, how can a majority of Republicans? I've read that the whip effort is focused on the votes of retiring members -- not a good signal. The President's support doesn't mean much, as he can't help with this election or any future. Candidate McCain's support is tepid. And very much doubt that House Republicans will trust the Democratic leadership to avoid exploiting their vote.

Nor do we see major leadership figures saying the bill would pass. With market confidence struggling, I might expect them to do so -- unless they fear a reversal similar to last Thursday's.

The only positive signal is the vote's schedule for noon. They won't vote if the bill will fail, but postponement would signal trouble, and might begin to unravel the deal. Perhaps a later vote might have given opposition time to organize, so this scheduling suggests that this is the likeliest time for success. If they can't get this done, the whole thing could come apart. I don't know what happens at that point.